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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd