Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
